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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the nex ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 9% LOWER THAN Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
RATES FOR CAPES KEPT MOVING SOUTH - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: With the BDI currently standing at less than 30 points above the historical lows marked in February this year and with activity acros ...
Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR (SEMI) ANTHRACITE COAL FOR SEOCHEON POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of (Semi) Anthracite for Ja ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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