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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 16 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.295 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q1 - Q2'16
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,295,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Monday, 16 November 15
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.05 (12.59%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of No ...
Monday, 16 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: Q1' 2016 SHAPING UP TO BE A ' DISASTROUS' ONE OF PROJECTED LOWER IRON ORE IMPORTS FROM CHINA
Over the course of the past year or so, it’s been the drop of coal imports from China, which has had a detrimental effect on the course of dr ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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