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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP LOST 15.47% SINCE 6 AUGUST; 18.65% SINCE 6 MAY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 &nb ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
Monday, 09 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 16 CONTRACT DECLINED US$ 4 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.35 (9.03 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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