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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL PRICES SET TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE UNTIL 2016 DUE TO OVER SUPPLY GLUT; H1 '16 COAL SWAPS DOWN 13% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
NEGATIVE 2016 OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN STEEL - SAYS FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: European steel in 2016 are both negative for the sector and for issuer ratings.
This reflects our expectation that import levels ...
Monday, 23 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN, AS SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO ALLEVIATING MARKET MELTDOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been in “meltdown” mode for a few weeks now, unable to find support and avoid the fall in historical lows. As s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED AT $40.27 PER TON; FELL 0.15% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5700 GAR CS (i) coal index fell by US cents 3 per ton week over week on 20 November 2015. CS 57 (5700 GAR coal) index closed at U ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL FURTHER ON LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.75 (13.99%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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