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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 25 November 15
INDIA'S POWER GENERATORS FACE LOW, FALLING UTILISATION RATE - FITCH
COAlspot.com: Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the utilisation rate of India's thermal power generation capacity continued to decline in ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIG CHINESE COPPER PROCESSORS DEFEND MARGINS THROUGH R&D, SAYS FITCH
Large Chinese copper processors are focusing on higher value-added products and investing in R&D to enhance their technical know-how to maintai ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIMCO LAUNCHES ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE FOR SHIPPING CONTRACTS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: BIMCO, is the world’s largest international shipping association, with 2,200 members in around 130 countries, has now launched ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE VASTARDIS
We have already noticed obvious signs of activity mainly West of Suez, which are currently driving the clean MR market to higher levels. Over the p ...
Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL SUPPLY PRESSURE PUTS INDONESIAN HBA IN FREE FALL
The coal industry is slowly recognizing that, the current coal price level is not a decrease in price, but a change in pricing to corresp ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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