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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 27 November 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEEK ENDING 20 NOVEMBER CLOSED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and up on week over week. Coal prices seen slight improvements thi ...
Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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