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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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