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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the boomi ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
DESPITE TEMPTING NEWBUILDING PRICES, CONTRACTING IN DRY BULK REMAINS LOW - BIMCO
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much that they just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards and are now at the l ...
Friday, 04 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE ALMOST FLAT OVER WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and rose slightly week over week. Coal prices seen very margi ...
Friday, 04 December 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR W/E NOVEMBER 28TH FELL SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.0 million shor ...
Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will cont ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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