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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
HOW TO MITIGATE LEGAL RISKS WHEN PURCHASING BUNKERS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE OW BUNKER COLLAPSE - THE SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
About a year has passed since OW Bunker & Trading A/S filed for bankruptcy. The collapse shows that there are signifi ...
Monday, 07 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX REMAIN THE SAME OVER LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index remain the same over last week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated) index, the CS 50 ...
Monday, 07 December 15
COAL DEMAND IN 2016 FAILS TO SUPPORT PRICES; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SEEN AT $US 42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 1.70 (3.88%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
THE BDI DECLINED BY 3.09 PERCENT TO 563 POINTS ON 4 DECEMBER
COALspot.com: The BDI declined by 3.09 percent to 563 points on 4 December 2015.
The Cape index was also declined by 10.01 percent to 890 poin ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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