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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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