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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to r ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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