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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. Th ...
Wednesday, 23 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSES FIRM
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up $0.45 per ton (1.22%) month over month to US$ 37.20 per ton. The swap wa ...
Tuesday, 22 December 15
3800 GAR INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 22.03 PER TON; DOWN 0.15% W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.03 per ton (-0.07 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 21 December 15
Q3' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARE TO Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up US$ 0.20 (0.48%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 20 December 15
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI facing all time low's this week. The bulk dry index closed at 477 points on 18 December 2015.
The cape index was als ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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