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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 31 December 15
2016 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP RALLY TO CLOSE AT $37.98/TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.48 per ton (4.05%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 30 December 15
FINAL DEALS OF THE YEAR TAKING PLACE, AS SHIP OWNERS PREPARE FOR 2016 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The Holidays’ investment lull has taken a grip over the newbuilding and S&P market for second hand vessels, as shipbrokers are reporting ...
Tuesday, 29 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 28 December 15
Q2' 15 U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TOTALED 7.0 MMST; DOWN 16.9% FROM Q1 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production during second quarter 2015 totaled 211.1 million short tons.
According to EIA’s preliminary quarterly ...
Monday, 28 December 15
NOVEMBER NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 11.87%; THE AVERAGE PRICE OF COAL EXPORTS ROSE 1.37%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.120 billio ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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