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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 January 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2015 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
Global economy: menacing clouds in the sky cast a shadow on global economic developments 2015 never really took off, even though the global economi ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX FALL TOWARD $27;SLIPPED 28.05% YEAR-TO-DATE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index has not moved in the past week, averaging $40.12 per ton on last Thursday, according to CS (i) Coal Index ...
Monday, 04 January 16
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP REMAIN FLAT OVER CHRISTMAS & NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Friday, 01 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $36.75 PER TON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month but flat week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap' ...
Thursday, 31 December 15
COAL PRICES FELL ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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