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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 26 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS KEEP DROPPING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's rep ...
Friday, 25 December 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 8.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SHED US$ 0.60 PER TON OVER WEEK, AND STANDS AT US$ 43.25 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
GLOBAL MARINE FUEL REGULATIONS COULD SHOCK REFINING AND OIL MARKETS - OPEC | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
IMO regulations call for global standards for sulphur content in marine fuel to be tightened to 0.5% from its present 3.5%. There is uncertainty ov ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
DRY BULKERS' VALUES ARE PLUNGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk carriers’ values are falling across the board, as the fall of freight rates is taking its toll, as is to be expected. In fact, accor ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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