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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 January 16
LNG BUNKERING IN ASIA: FUELING A PROMISING FUTURE? - REED SMITH
The requirement of a mandatory reduction of sulphur content in bunker fuel proposed by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) poses a challe ...
Saturday, 09 January 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SINKS 10% WEEK OVER WEEK TO AN ALL-TIME LOW OF 429 POINTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, decline around 10% we ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY H1'16 REMAIN FLAT AS DEMAND DROPS OFF
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month, flat week over week. The price for coal has been in a Dull Market sinc ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2'16 DELIVERY CLOSED UP $0.13 AT $45.50 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Friday, 08 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES 1.6% TO 11.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7million short ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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