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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Friday, 15 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FIRM SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month over month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's r ...
Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market ...
Friday, 15 January 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE ACROSS ALL BASINS: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 14 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $5.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coal ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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