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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 24 January 16
PANAMAX MARKET WEAKENS ACROSS THE BOARD
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell ninetee ...
Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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