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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 January 16
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR COAL IN LIGHT OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT? - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
This depends – says the VDKi – to a very great extent on who you want to believe more, the United Nations or the International Energy A ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FOR Q1,Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERIES FIRM THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap rose month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coa ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS CLOSE MIXED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.17 per ton (3.13%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
WORLD HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION DECLINE IN 2015 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A DECADE - VDKI
COALspot.com: Seaborne hard coal trade and the changes in this area were decisively affected by China and India - VDKi.
China bears the g ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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