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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 01 February 16
INDONESIA'S SECOND LARGEST COAL MINER ADARO ENERGY HAS PRODUCED 51.46 MT IN 2015; 8% LOWER COMPARED TO FY14
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy, the Indonesia’s second largest coal producer by volume has produced 51.46 Mt in 2015, 8% lower compared to ...
Sunday, 31 January 16
BDI CONTINUED ITS FALL AND CLOSE AT A FRESH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertilizer, continued it ...
Friday, 29 January 16
INDONESIAN BENCHMARK COAL PRICE SETTLES DOWN $ 0.31, OR 0.58%, AT $ 53.20 A TON
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further down in January 2016. HBA has slumped by 0.58 ...
Friday, 29 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 2 PERCENT FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 milli ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
COAL REMAINS THE NO.1 FUEL FOR POWER GENERATION - EXXONMOBIL
COALspot.com: Energy demand trends from 2010 to 2040 are expected to vary significantly around the world, as countries move along very different tr ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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