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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 February 16
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIAN TO CHINA HAS BEEN CONCLUDED AT US$ 2.85 PMT AND THE C3 MARKET REMAINS INACTIVE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
As everyone is getting ready for the Chinese new year, already depressed rates are under further pressure.
According to Fearnleys, ...
Wednesday, 03 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET CONTINUES TO BE UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market continues to be under pressure, with the BDI remaining in search of even the slightest support, which seems to be delaying more ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
RECORD EXPORTS THROUGH SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL MADE AT EXPENSE OF SMALLER RIVALS, IHS SAYS
Five percent increase in coal exports through South Africa’s dominant Richards Bay Coal Terminal in 2015 unlikely to accelerate country&rsquo ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
SETTING ASIDE, STRIKING OUT AND APPEALS TO THE COURT OF APPEAL IN SHIP ARRESTS - RAJAH & TANN ASIA LLP
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Singapore Court of Appeal once again has had to grapple with ship arrest, setting aside and appeals to the Court unde ...
Monday, 01 February 16
DRY BULK SUFFERS FROM POSEIDON'S POTENT PRONGS - CLARKSONS
It has been a grim start to 2016 for the bulkcarrier market, with the Baltic Dry Index sliding to new record lows on almost every day of the year s ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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