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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING DIVING DEEP
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of glo ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike ...
Friday, 05 February 16
COAL INDIA EYES COAL MINES IN SOUTH AFRICA - PTI
“Coal India Ltd has plans of acquiring coal mines in South Africa,” an official said. It is looking at acquiring mines in partnership w ...
Friday, 05 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE 4.2% TO 13.6 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.6 million shor ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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