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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial in ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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