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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 08 January 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S CRISIS DEEPENS AS RATES ARE DROPPING TO NEW RECORD LOWS BY THE DAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Just when you would think that the dry bulk market is reaching its bottom, even as it has long surpassed all-time lows, each day that passes by at ...
Thursday, 07 January 16
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DELIVERY Q1'16 REMAIN FLAT W-O-W; UP M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.23 per ton (3.35%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Thursday, 07 January 16
SHIPPING WILL REMAIN VOLATILE AND INDISPENSABLE IN 2016 - MOORE STEPHENS
The ultimate definition of an optimist has been characterised as an accordion player with an answerphone. Such extreme optimism might be difficult ...
Wednesday, 06 January 16
NEW COAL PRICE PASS-THROUGH REGULATION BENEFITS CHINA IPPS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says the new Coal Price Pass-through Mechanism announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on 31 December ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
BIG COAL MINERS PLAN HIGHER PRODUCTION THIS YEAR - THE JAKARTA POST
The country’s major coal miners plan to further boost production in 2016 although analysts estimate that an oversupply in the world’s c ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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