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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke t ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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