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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 April 16
INDONESIA CS57 COAL INDEX SLIDES SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.07 percent week over week to averaging $38.88 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 04 April 16
CAPE INDEX JUMPED 70% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 01 April 16
ASSESSING THE DRY BULK MARKET AT ROCK BOTTOM - CLARKSONS
While the opening months of the year are typically a weak period for the dry bulk market, the downturn so far this year has been severe. Earnings h ...
Friday, 01 April 16
NINE AM - TIME TO GET AN INDONESIAN LANGUAGE VERSION OF YOUR CHARTERPARTIES - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
For several years, Indonesian law (Article 31, Law Number 24 of 2009) has required that memoranda of understanding (" ...
Friday, 01 April 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.6 million shor ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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