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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 31 March 16
CAPE: ANOTHER UNEVENTFUL WEEK WITH FIXTURES CONCLUDED AT LAST DONE LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Another uneventful week with fixtures concluded at last done levels, CS levels remain around the USD 3 mark, whilst C3 is still just short o ...
Wednesday, 30 March 16
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE METHODOLOGY TO DETERMINE THE SELLING PRICE OF COAL TO MINE-MOUTH POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia to review to revise methodology to determine the selling price of co ...
Wednesday, 30 March 16
VALEMAXES: THE BIGGEST NIGHTMARE OF TODAY'S DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
At a time that Europe is still dealing with the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Brussels our society is daily bombarded with news of terroris ...
Tuesday, 29 March 16
BULK CARRIER VENTILATION - CAPTAIN PAUL R. WALTON
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Moisture damage is a source of many cargo claims. Claimants allege that it is brought about by the ship’s failure t ...
Monday, 28 March 16
INDONESIAN WEEKLY CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED SLIGHTLY FIRM; CS 57 INDEX CLOSED WEAK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.03 percent week over week to averaging $38.91 per ton on this past Thursday, ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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