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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 28 March 16
THE SUPRAMAX INDEX WAS UP TWENTY-FOUR POINTS TO 473 POINTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 25 March 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET WILL GROW BY 1.3% DURING 2016 - BIMCO | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market will keep on suffering, at least until the start of 2017 and possibly well after that, should the current balance of supply and ...
Friday, 25 March 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 9.1% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.3 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 March 16
PERSISTENT OVERCAPACITY TO PROLONG CHINA'S COAL SECTOR DOWNTURN - FITCH
China's coal sector is likely to remain under pressure in the short to medium term as structural weaknesses in demand and overcapacity persist, ...
Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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