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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 April 16
PANAMAX RATES ARE FIRMING IN BOTH HEMISHEPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
With a great volume our of west Australia, rates were finally moving to upper 3's. and stabilizing towards the middle of the week in ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
BIMCO AND GIIGNL PUBLISH A GROUNDBREAKING VOYAGE CHARTER PARTY FOR LNG TRADE
BIMCO and the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL) have today jointly issued the first definitive voyage charter party & ...
Wednesday, 06 April 16
HOW LONG SHIPPING CRISIS WILL BE; WHEN SHOULD OWNERS EXPECT THE BULK CARRIERS TO BECOME PROFITABLE? - INTERMODAL
It is the consensus that dry bulk shipping has been in a crisis for quite some time now. Bulk carrier values are at historical low levels, therefor ...
Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side c ...
Monday, 04 April 16
THE LOADING, AND SUBSEQUENT DISCHARGE, OF UNSAFE NICKEL ORE - ALL TIME TO 'COUNT' - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent, published, London arbitration award the English tribunal has held that all time lost as a result of loading, ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
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