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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 April 16
BDI ROSE TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 08 April 16
COASTAL ENERGEN CROSSES GENERATION OF 1068 MW AND EXPORT OF 1004 MW FROM ITS 1200 MW IPP
COALspot.com: Coal & Oil (C&O) Group, an India centric Energy & Infrastructure company announced that their Coastal Energen' ...
Friday, 08 April 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 5.4% TO 11 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11 million short ...
Friday, 08 April 16
MINISTER OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO ISSUE REGULATION TO GUARANTEE THE COAL SUPPLY TO ITS 35K POWER PLANT PROJECTS
COALspot.com: In order to guarantee the supply of coal for 35,000 megawatt (mw) coal based power plants ( still in planning stage), the Minister of ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
CHINA STEEL CAPACITY CUTS FACE SOCIAL, FINANCIAL HURDLES - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says today that the Chinese government's supply-side reform of the steel sector faces immense social and financial challenges. Th ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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