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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Tuesday, 03 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery slid $1.84 per ton (4.34%) month over month to US$ 40.54 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 02 November 15
DESPITE CHALLENGING MARKET CONDITIONS, ADARO LOWERS COSTS, DEBT AND DELIVERS STRONG FREE CASH FLOW
COALspot.com: Despite challenging market conditions, Adaro lowers costs, lowers debt and delivers strong free cash flow.
The Indonesia’s ...
Monday, 02 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED ON A WEAK NOTE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.81(3.71 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 01 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET SENTIMENT REMAINS WEAK
This week’s freight market sentiment remains weak compared to last week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an economic indicator issued daily ...
Saturday, 31 October 15
ADARO ENERGY'S CORE EARNINGS DECLINE 21 PER CENT FOR THE NINE MONTHS PERIOD TO SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy's core earnings decline 21% to US$228 Million for first 9months of this year compared to the same period last year. ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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