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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Monday, 09 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 16 CONTRACT DECLINED US$ 4 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.35 (9.03 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 09 November 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SURGED 18%; COKING COAL 6.31% DURING APRIL-OCTOBER: BUSINESS-STANDARD
Indian thermal coal imports surged 18% at the country's top 12 major ports to 55.90 million tonnes (MT) in the first seven months of the curren ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET KEEP DROPPING THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The freight market keep dropping this week.
The BDI down 12.48 percent week on week and closed at 631 points on 6 November 2015. ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES IN AUSTRALIA-CHINA ROUTES OVER 50% CHEAPER THAN BRAZIL-CHINA ROUTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s mining and steel industries are facing tectonic shifts over the past couple of years, with the country’s limiting of coal use, ...
Friday, 06 November 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FELL SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 31
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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