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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Thursday, 05 November 15
Q2'16 INDO THERMAL COAL SWAP CONTRACT FOB INDONESIA FALLS TO $39.90/T
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this past we ...
Thursday, 05 November 15
INFORMATION EXCHANGE GROUP'S LATAM MINING SECURITY SUMMIT 2016 - INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TECHNOLOGY SECURITY IN MINING
Press Release: LATAM Mining Security Summit 2016 is a carefully designed event that will bring together the leading stakeholders in the mining sect ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies con ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was up US$ 1.4 ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
THE DISCHARGE OF CARGO IN THE PRC WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On occasions, a vessel may arrive at a port and be ready to discharge but the original bills of lading in respect of the ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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