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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Friday, 30 October 15
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORTS DROP ON LOW PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia's coal exports significantly dropped in the first nine months of the year as coal companies continued to suffer from low prices in ad ...
Friday, 30 October 15
CHINESE MINERAL IMPORTS: MOVING ON FROM INDONESIA? - CLARKSONS
China has accounted for almost 90% of global imports of nickel ore and bauxite in recent years and was therefore heavily hit by the Indonesian mine ...
Friday, 30 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES INCREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
IRAN'S RETURN TO OIL MARKETS WILL HAVE TEMPERED IMPACT FOR THE TANKER SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While many analysts appear to be fearful of a potential incremental rise in tanker ships’ supply, as a result of the imminent return of Iran ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
Q2' 16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 37.40 PER TON; DECLINED 5.56 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.13 (-5.34%) per t ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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