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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Wednesday, 28 October 15
Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SEES FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was d ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
BDI INCREASE TOOK PLACE SOLELY ON THE BACK OF CAPESIZE PERFORMANCE, BUT........ - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a small improvement which nonetheless failed to lift sentiment, not only because ...
Tuesday, 27 October 15
Q1'16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINE 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $2 per ton (4.66%) month over month to US$ 40.93 per ton. The swa ...
Monday, 26 October 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.5 PER CENT LESS COAL IN SEPTEMBER, COMPARED TO AUGUST LOADING
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.161 billi ...
Monday, 26 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSE DOWN 4.3% AS DEMAND CONCERNS WEIGH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US$ 1.48 (3.02 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity sw ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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