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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 28 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 2.73 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery moved upward US$ 1.45 (3.04 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 27 September 15
THE PANAMAX INDEX FELL 1.19 PCT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI closed Friday (25/09/2015) at 943 points, down by 17 points compared to previous Friday closing (18/09/2015). The BDI wa ...
Friday, 25 September 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING SEPTEMBER 19 ROSE 2.5% PER CENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chin ...
Wednesday, 23 September 15
INDONESIA: NEW REGULATION APPLIES FINAL INCOME TAX TO MINERAL AND COAL SALES - FLORENCE GRACIA SANTOSO
To increase state revenue from the mining sector, the Government of Indonesia has imposed a new final income tax on any sale of mineral and coal, a ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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