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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 22 September 15
1Q16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 6.49 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 2.29 (-5.42%) per t ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 21 September 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q2' 16 SWAP
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery increased $0.43 per ton (1.01%) month over month to US$ 42.95 per ton. The ...
Monday, 21 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 0.45 (0.90 %) per ton month over month.
A commodit ...
Monday, 21 September 15
KOMIPO OF KOREA INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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