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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 30 September 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS $1.25 A TON AS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 0.72 (-1.78%) per t ...
Wednesday, 30 September 15
NEW BUILDING MARKET INSIGHT
COALspot.com: This year has been, beyond any doubt, a rather strenuous one for the newbuilding market. Ordering activity with regards to Dry Bulker ...
Tuesday, 29 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS ARE SLIDING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 28 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS UP $2.15 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery increased $2.10 per ton (5.15%) month over month to US$ 42.93 per ton. The ...
Monday, 28 September 15
CAPESIZE FLEET INCREASES BY JUST 1 VESSEL DURING LAST 12 MONTHS, IN POSITIVE SIGN FOR DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
After a rather tumultuous period, the shipping industry and more particular the dry bulk market has started to adjust to the new realities of globa ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
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