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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 05 October 15
Q1' 16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 48.05 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down US$ 0.47 (0.96 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 05 October 15
SMALL DECLINE IN 2014 SHIP OPERATING COSTS - MOORE STEPHENS
Total annual operating costs in the shipping industry fell by an average of 0.8% in 2014. This compares with the 0.3% average fall in costs recorde ...
Sunday, 04 October 15
THE INDO-INDIA FREIGHT MARKET REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The BDI closed on Friday (2 Oct 2015) at 889 points, down by 54 points compared to previous Friday's closing ( 24 Sept 2015) of 9 ...
Friday, 02 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 01 October 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO SEEKS SPOT BITUMINOUS COAL SUPPLIES
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 265,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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