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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 12 October 15
BDI WEIGHED DOWN BY CAPE
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has come back down again this week. The BDI is a benchmark index used to assess the overall cost of moving ...
Sunday, 11 October 15
TANKER SHIPPING: MORE OPTIMISM IN SIGHT FOR TANKERS IN THE WINTER SEASON - BIMCO
Demand:
2015 has been the year of the tanker. The fundamental improvements with slow supply-side growth for some years coupled with low oil pri ...
Friday, 09 October 15
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 1.2 PERCENT TO 17.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 08 October 15
CAPESIZE: MOST PEOPLE AGREE A SPIKE IN RATES WILL HAPPEN; WHEN, HOW LONG AND HOW SUBSTANTIAL? - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Depressives start of the fourth quarter, with c3 approaching USD 12 pmt and c5 presently in the mind 5's. According to Fearnleys ship br ...
Wednesday, 07 October 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST SEVEN MONTHS DOWN 21 PER CENT COMPARED WITH THE SAME PERIOD IN 2014 - EIA
Coal Supply
Lower U.S.’s domestic coal consumption and reduced exports contribute to a forecast decline of 89 million short tons (M ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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