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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 16 October 15
MAJOR REVISION OF NYPE TIME CHAPTER PARTY - BIMCO
Major revision of NYPE time charter party promises to be both balanced and comprehensive
BIMCO has today jointly issued the first revision of ...
Friday, 16 October 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4'15 DELIVERY FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK; DOWN 5.5 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) ...
Friday, 16 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK; DOWN 11.3 PER CENT Y-Y, DOWN 3.5 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.1 million shor ...
Friday, 16 October 15
INDONESIA REJOINING OPEC DESPITE BEING A NET IMPORTER OF PETROLEUM - EIA
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) notified Indonesia that it plans to accept the country's request to reactivate its ...
Thursday, 15 October 15
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR SEVEN STRAIGHT MONTH IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price this month.
The ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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