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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 20 October 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $1.23 per ton (2.86%) month over month to US$ 41.80 per ton. The ...
Monday, 19 October 15
RUSSIA MAJOR COAL MINER KRU CUTS 4.5 MLN T/YR "UNPROFITABLE" EURO SALES - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU), one of Russia's largest producers of high-quality coal, plans to cut its coal exports in 2016 by about 4 ...
Monday, 19 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $48.68 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 55 (1.12 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 19 October 15
KOMIPO SEEKS 1.28 MILLION T/Y COAL FOR DEC 2015 - Q2 2016
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,280,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Sunday, 18 October 15
THE BDI AND OTHER INDICES CLOSED OFF ON NEGATIVE NOTE THIS FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on negative note this Friday compared to previous Friday's closing.
The BDI closed this Friday (16 Octobe ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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