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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 21 October 15
RUSSIA'S CARBO ONE COAL SALES TO HIT 50 MLN T/YR - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Russia's Carbo One has become one of the world's leading physical coal traders with an annual volume approaching 50 million t ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM POSTS POSITIVE PERFORMANCE DURING FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state controlled coal miner PT. Bukit Asam has announced that, the company’s coal sales up 8 per ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
LOWER DEMAND HIT Q1' 16 INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 1.88 (-4.71%) per t ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
SHIPBROKER SEES CAPESIZE RATES EASILY REACHING $25,000/DAY BY YEAR-END : NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future course of the dry bulk market has been troubling market participants for quite some time now, as the “elusive” freight rate ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS SINK INTO RED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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