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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 29 October 15
Q2' 16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 37.40 PER TON; DECLINED 5.56 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.13 (-5.34%) per t ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SEES FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was d ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
BDI INCREASE TOOK PLACE SOLELY ON THE BACK OF CAPESIZE PERFORMANCE, BUT........ - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a small improvement which nonetheless failed to lift sentiment, not only because ...
Tuesday, 27 October 15
Q1'16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINE 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $2 per ton (4.66%) month over month to US$ 40.93 per ton. The swa ...
Monday, 26 October 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.5 PER CENT LESS COAL IN SEPTEMBER, COMPARED TO AUGUST LOADING
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.161 billi ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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