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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 31 October 15
ADARO ENERGY'S CORE EARNINGS DECLINE 21 PER CENT FOR THE NINE MONTHS PERIOD TO SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy's core earnings decline 21% to US$228 Million for first 9months of this year compared to the same period last year. ...
Friday, 30 October 15
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORTS DROP ON LOW PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia's coal exports significantly dropped in the first nine months of the year as coal companies continued to suffer from low prices in ad ...
Friday, 30 October 15
CHINESE MINERAL IMPORTS: MOVING ON FROM INDONESIA? - CLARKSONS
China has accounted for almost 90% of global imports of nickel ore and bauxite in recent years and was therefore heavily hit by the Indonesian mine ...
Friday, 30 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES INCREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
IRAN'S RETURN TO OIL MARKETS WILL HAVE TEMPERED IMPACT FOR THE TANKER SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While many analysts appear to be fearful of a potential incremental rise in tanker ships’ supply, as a result of the imminent return of Iran ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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