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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 05 November 15
Q2'16 INDO THERMAL COAL SWAP CONTRACT FOB INDONESIA FALLS TO $39.90/T
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this past we ...
Thursday, 05 November 15
INFORMATION EXCHANGE GROUP'S LATAM MINING SECURITY SUMMIT 2016 - INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TECHNOLOGY SECURITY IN MINING
Press Release: LATAM Mining Security Summit 2016 is a carefully designed event that will bring together the leading stakeholders in the mining sect ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies con ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was up US$ 1.4 ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
THE DISCHARGE OF CARGO IN THE PRC WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On occasions, a vessel may arrive at a port and be ready to discharge but the original bills of lading in respect of the ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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