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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 09 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 16 CONTRACT DECLINED US$ 4 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.35 (9.03 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 09 November 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SURGED 18%; COKING COAL 6.31% DURING APRIL-OCTOBER: BUSINESS-STANDARD
Indian thermal coal imports surged 18% at the country's top 12 major ports to 55.90 million tonnes (MT) in the first seven months of the curren ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET KEEP DROPPING THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The freight market keep dropping this week.
The BDI down 12.48 percent week on week and closed at 631 points on 6 November 2015. ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES IN AUSTRALIA-CHINA ROUTES OVER 50% CHEAPER THAN BRAZIL-CHINA ROUTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s mining and steel industries are facing tectonic shifts over the past couple of years, with the country’s limiting of coal use, ...
Friday, 06 November 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FELL SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 31
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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