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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 03 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery slid $1.84 per ton (4.34%) month over month to US$ 40.54 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which ...
Monday, 02 November 15
DESPITE CHALLENGING MARKET CONDITIONS, ADARO LOWERS COSTS, DEBT AND DELIVERS STRONG FREE CASH FLOW
COALspot.com: Despite challenging market conditions, Adaro lowers costs, lowers debt and delivers strong free cash flow.
The Indonesia’s ...
Monday, 02 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED ON A WEAK NOTE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.81(3.71 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 01 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET SENTIMENT REMAINS WEAK
This week’s freight market sentiment remains weak compared to last week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an economic indicator issued daily ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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