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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 13 November 15
WEAK CHINA POWER DEMAND DAMPENS COAL CONSUMPTION - FITCH
The weak growth in China's electricity consumption in 2015, together with increasing non-thermal power generation capacity are exerting more pr ...
Friday, 13 November 15
DRY BULK, IT IS HARD TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VIEW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The dry bulk owners looking for cover remained under pressure for size segments across the board. With Capes closing off the week as ...
Friday, 13 November 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES TO 16.5 MMST; SLIDE 14.9% Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
FOREIGN COAL MINE ACQUISITION - STRATEGY VERSUS OPPORTUNITY FOR INDIAN UTILITIES - DIPESH DIPU
The acquisition market for thermal coal assets abroad is dull. Sellers of all hues are in the market; some are actively scouting for buyers while o ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP IN OCTOBER 2015
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.254 billio ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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