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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the nex ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 9% LOWER THAN Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
RATES FOR CAPES KEPT MOVING SOUTH - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: With the BDI currently standing at less than 30 points above the historical lows marked in February this year and with activity acros ...
Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR (SEMI) ANTHRACITE COAL FOR SEOCHEON POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of (Semi) Anthracite for Ja ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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